But what happened? There's plenty of finger-pointing to go around, but none of it in Viggo's direction:

· Blame Warner Bros.: Pundits were optimistic about his supporting turn in Appaloosa, the Ed Harris-directed Western that Warner attempted to platform opposite The Duchess in mid-September. It fell off not only moviegoers' radar but the entire box-office (and Oscar-season) map a few weeks later, expanding to 1,000 screens and getting pummeled by the likes of Beverly Hills Chihuahua, Religulous and Rachel Getting Married. Expect Warner to redirect whatever Academy screeners it had whipped up into retail when the DVD is released Jan. 13.

· Blame Harvey: While a handful of unlucky staffers packed up their desks, the Weinstein Company cleared even more budget space by tossing a collection of '08 releases into storage. Among them: The much-anticipated (and arguably unfinished) Cormac McCarthy adaptation The Road, featuring Mortensen as a father struggling through an ashy post-apocalyptic wasteland with his son and a shopping cart. It was likely the actor's best shot for a 2008 nod, and now — with literally no other Viggo films in development for next year and the Weinsteins on a little more stable footing after The Reader release squabble — it becomes his best shot for 2009.

· Blame ThinkFilm: The indie distributor had the Holocaust drama Good — of which Mortensen is reportedly most proud — in its queue for the end of the year before financier David Bergstein's wheels flew off last summer. Think has battled back to the extent it can, getting Good in theaters today, just in time for an Oscar qualifying run. But despite its campaign prowess (and success) as recently as last year, the money and time aren't there to push Mortensen to the kind of visibility required in a tough year for Best Actor hopefuls. Which reminds us:

· Blame Mickey Rourke, Sean Penn, Frank Langella, Clint Eastwood, Brad Pitt and Richard Jenkins. The six front-runners for this year's Best Actor prize love Mortensen as much as the rest of us. That doesn't mean they wouldn't run him over in their crowded campaign bus before letting him on, Holocaust movie or not. There's always '09.

Today's Hollywood Reporter notes that TWC's bosses of acquisition and production Michelle Krumm and Maeva Gatineau left through the back door at the beginning of October, while production execs Michael Cole and Carla Gardini will follow with marketing VP Gary Faber in short order. All were Miramax veterans at the end of their first contracts with TWC. Harvey says he intends to replace them, and with Inglourious Basterds [sic] currently shooting in Germany and Rob Marshall's musical Nine on the way soon after, face-value presumes to believe him.

But we'd much sooner believe he'd sell the operation for parts — Basterds, Nine, the just-shelved Forest Whitaker drama Hurricane Season, Fanboys, Shanghai and anything else Fox Searchlight, Focus Features, Flopz™ or another willing suitor can squeeze into a shopping cart on a 60-second spree through the storage locker. (Sorry, though, Lifetime — you still can't have Project Runway.) Even if The Reader can surmount its rush-job ego drama to make a legit awards-season run, whatever prestige accompanies it will wind up attributed to everybody but poor Harvey. It's almost pitiable.

Almost. In the end, the Weinstein brothers' public incompetence is really too willful to lament and too insistent to shock. Take today's Variety item, for example, in which Bob Weinstein, whose genre arm Dimension has itself survived without a production president since buying out Richard Saperstein last year, announced a greenlight for 18 titles to be produced this fall and released to straight to the Dimension Extreme DVD label in 2009. (This coming the same day Dimension shelved its Cormac McCarthy adaptation The Road indefinitely.) They're all franchise installments or remakes — Pulse 2, Midnight Man 2 and 3, Children of the Corn, Chapter XXIV, etc. — budgeted between $3 million and $6 million. “Having learned how profitable a video library is and having already found great success launching franchises on video, this was a natural and obvious progression,” Bob told the trade.

Contrast that with his appearance sitting in for Harvey last week at Nielsen's Media and Money conference, where the Reporter cited his bearishness toward a "dwindling DVD market" and the vague hope that he might be lucky enough to exploit that library — not $75 million in new productions — through VOD and Web downloads. Is the Weinsteins' output deal with Showtime richer than we thought? And with almost as many empty desks as delayed titles left in the office, who is selling these films? How are they even getting made?

That said, Zack and Miri Make a Porno will probably open in the Top 3 next week with little more than stick figures on its poster and morbidly obese Kevin Smith regaling America with his stories of broken toilets, so what do we know? As you were, Harvey, we guess.

• Exodus at Weinstein Co. [THR]

• Dimension adds to video business [Variety]

So who's in and who's out?

· The Soloist: OUT. The move to March 13 stings for everyone, especially with millions in marketing dollars already being spent ahead of the Jamie Foxx/Robert Downey Jr. drama's Nov. 21 release. Both men were on the bubble for actor nominations — Foxx as a schizophrenic cellist and RDJ as the journalist who chronicles his feel-good recovery journey — but Paramount's new conservatism (i.e. an intern hiding Brad Grey's checkbook) means it only has so many in-house resources to lend to its fall releases. The studio's semi-official insistence that the shifts have nothing to do with the film's quality or favoring its homegrown Benjamin Button and Scott Rudin/DreamWorks offering Revolutionary Road, but that's bullshit. It's not 2006 anymore; nobody can afford all this prestige at once.

· Defiance: IN. Barely. Paramount inherited the WWII-era Daniel Craig drama from its lopped-off Vantage arm; but unlike The Soloist, the studio didn't have it on its Oscar-season books until earlier this year. Pushed back from Dec. 12, it'll still get a qualifying run in New York and L.A. before opening wide on Jan. 16 — sort of an afterthought treatment that won't likely sit well with director/producer and biennial Oscar bridesmaid Ed Zwick, but hey: There's always the ShowEast Kodak Award. Congrats again, Ed!

And while we're at it, let's not forget the neglected Weinstein and MGM family:

· The Road: OUT. As noted yesterday, the Weinsteins took it back from MGM only to nudge it from Nov. 14 to an undisclosed release date in December. It's not finished, and the Weinsteins can't promote it; we foresee this one left wailing on someone's doorstep in a basket some time in mid-2009.

· The Reader: IN. It's apparently back on the Weinstein Web site, and Bob Weinstein thinks it's "terrific"! And now without Defiance to contend with, Harvey's Folly may actually have a shot at an audience on Dec. 12. Oscars, though? We're not so sure.

· Valkyrie: IN. Even the MGM Tower receptionist is pulling her weight on the campaign these days. If gold had a smell, Valkyrie would reek.

So... work in progress. Fine tuning can help anything: Trim this scene, delete that redundant one. But I worry. They passed out those infamous test-screen questionnaires and delicate art fare like this... Well, won't it just get stupid missing-the-point notes like "TOO DEPRESSING!"? Or "but why was there an apocalypse???" I hope they incinerate clueless scribbles and concentrate on constructive ones.

The movie is very faithful to McCarthy's novel in current shape. It has mostly the same story beats as The Man and the Boy travel south trying to avoid starvation, cannibals, and unforgiving weather. The Road wisely avoids narration (the novel is minimalist and voice-over would conjure the opposite feeling altogether) and the production design from the Children of Men team is believably ashen and lived-in: They've cornered the market on post-apocalyptic drama! The Man (Viggo Mortensen) and The Boy (Kodi Smit-McPhee) have super chemistry which is a huge relief since everything potent about the story requires it. All of the nomadic starving ensemble have tiny roles but Robert Duvall floored me and Garret Dillahunt (rapidly turning into one of my favorite character actors) spooked me, respectively.

Great! So what do you say? Spring... 2010? Consider the Road Release Date Pool underway!

• 'Road' may not be done in time for '08 [THR]

• The Road is Under Construction [The Film Experience Blog]

Mortensen adores Good, which ThinkFilm plans to release by year's end. But the film is directed by Brazilian director Vicente Amorim, who is not in the Academy directors' club.

Mortensen's third fall pic, John Hillcoat's film version of Cormac McCarthy's post-apocalyptic novel The Road, wasn't ready for the film fests. The 2929 Entertainment pic is set for release November 26 by Dimension/MGM, which suggests that despite its literary pedigree (and the Oscar Best Picture win for No Country for Old Men, based on McCarthy's book), the film may not be on Harvey Weinstein's Oscar must-push list.

Nevertheless, Hillcoat's follow-up to his bleak, brilliant Aussie Western The Proposition got a once-over in New York Magazine's fall preview issue, with Hillcoat indirectly slagging the likes of Cloverfield ("We wanted something more resonant than, you know, the Statue of Liberty cut in half") while keeping mum on Viggo's performance as a father dragging his son through the ashy aftermath of apocalypse. Until we can judge for ourselves, we have the stills above to turn us on/off. Correct us if we're wrong, but like another pivotal dramaturgical maxim of our era, no one we know ever won an Oscar after going "Full Shopping Cart."

• Awards Season Watch: Mortensen Trifecta [Thompson on Hollywood]
• Dossier: John Hillcoat [NYM]