While Mad Men is a critical darling and its ratings are growing, it has never been a ratings bonanza for AMC and the pay is notoriously low. And after three seasons of being on "TV's best show," the siren song of more lucrative TV and movie roles may be irresistible. Plus, the way that series creator Matthew Weiner left things — Sterling Cooper as we knew it is dissolved, newly formed Sterling Cooper Draper Price may make it out of the Pierre Hotel, and Don's marriage is effectively over — almost any any character could be easily written out. So it would not be surprising if some of the regular characters disappear entirely from the show by next summer with nothing but a line of dialogue — "Oh, Peggy couldn't stand working next to Pete and Duck hired her after three weeks" — and a guest appearance or two.

Here your betting guide for who's coming back as a regular for Mad Men's fourth series, from most likely to call-your-agent.

Don Draper
Played By: Jon Hamm
Last We Saw Him: Lording over his new kingdom in a hotel room.
Why Stay: There wouldn't be a show without him.
Why Leave: After a great guest spot on 30 Rock, Hamm is getting more attention than anyone in the cast, for drama as well as comedy. He's also involved in several upcoming movies like Howl, The Town, and Sucker Punch.
Odds of Returning: 1: 1,000,000 (come on, there's no Mad Men without Don Draper)

Peggy Olsen
Played By: Elizabeth Moss
Last We Saw Her: Working for Don at the new firm.
Why Stay: She's a fan favorite with a great role and her character is on solid ground at the new firm.
Why Leave: To be a movie star! She's come a long way since her days on The West Wing. Between this an a well-regarded turn on Broadway opposite sushi-poisoned Jeremy Piven in Speed The Plow, now may be her time.
Odds of Returning: 1: 500

Roger Sterling
Played By: John Slattery
Last We Saw Him: Don's new best friend and business partner.
Why Stay: Roger gets all the ladies, funny lines, and best bits. Who doesn't want to play the scene stealer. Plus, Slattery and Hamm are besties.
Why Leave: There will be plenty of work for a veteran character actor like Slattery—work that probably pays a lot better.
Odds of Returning: 1:200

Pete Campbell
Played By: Vincent Kartheiser
Last We Saw Him: Don's new protege at the new firm.
Why Stay: He has a nice juicy, high-profile role that's far better than anything else he'll land.
Why Leave: He doesn't have a good reason.
Odds of Returning: 1: 100

Joan Holloway
Played By: Christina Hendricks
Last We Saw Her: The new office queen of Sterling Cooper Draper Price.
Why Stay: Because if she doesn't, we will slit our wrists.
Why Leave: Holloway is a sexy lady who has been on the fringes of TV for awhile. She may see this as her break. She's in next winter movie Life as We Know It, and she has proven to have the looks and the talent to anchor a TV show of her own.
Odds of Returning: 1: 75

Trudy Campbell
Played By: Alison Brie
Last We Saw Him: Delivering a cake in a wonderful red bucket hat.
Why Stay: Who else is going to nudge Pete in the right direction. And we need someone to show off retro fashions.
Why Leave: This isn't the biggest role, unless she and Pete get an upgrade.
Odds of Returning: 1:50

Harry Crane
Played By: Rich Sommer
Last We Saw Her: Eating one of Trudy's sandwiches at Sterling Cooper Draper Price.
Why Stay: He was saved by this plot twist, which means the writers have something in store for him.
Why Leave: Harry never gets to do much of anything, not even supporting character zany. He may want to stretch his legs.
Odds of Returning: 1: 10

Betty Draper
Played By: January Jones
Last We Saw Her: On the plane to Reno to get a divorce from Don with her future ex-husband Henry.
Why Stay: Because it would be great fun to watch Betty get tortured some more.
Why Leave: She has every reason to leave. Betty's storyline is at an obvious stopping point, at least as featured character. January Jones has been making the PR push, putting her boobs on GQ, hosting Saturday Night Live, and attaching herself to a number of projects. She also has a part in the upcoming Pirate Radio, so it certainly looks like she's planning a busy schedule away from Mad Men
Odds of Returning: 1:5

Sally, Bobby, and Gene Draper
Played By: Kiernan Shipka, Jared Gilmore, some baby
Last We Saw Them: On the couch with Carla being dazed by the TV.
Why Stay: They're kids. What, would they rather go to like real school? Also, they're Don's kids. You can't just erase them.
Why Leave: Or can you? If Betty leaves for good (maybe she and Henry settle in Reno and open a casino?) the kids go with her. And Bachelor Don is going to have plenty of babes to play with.
Odds of Returning: 3:1

Ken Cosgrove
Played By: Aaron Staton
Last We Saw Him: Left at the former Sterling Cooper, but as head of accounts.
Why Stay: A steady job—albeit a small part and, hey, maybe the writers need a way to a character to demonstrate life inside soulless McCann-Erickson.
Why Leave: Staton would be bummed to be cut, but it'd be really easy for him to go off and finally become a novelist.
Odds of Returning: 5:1

Bert Cooper
Played By: Robert Morse
Last We Saw Him: Keeping the sofa warm at his newest ad agency.
Why Stay: As an older gentleman, just like Cooper, if Morse leaves, there isn't going to be much work for him elsewhere. At least not with this high a profile.
Why Leave: He may not have a choice. Cooper doesn't do all that much, and when they need a big shock, it will be easy to give him a stroke/heart attack/Japanese armor accident at any time.
Odds of Returning: 10:1

Paul Kinsey
Played By: Michael Gladis
Last We Saw Him: Wishing Don had taken him instead of Peggy.
Why Stay: There's not much else for him on the horizon.
Why Leave: We have a feeling he doesn't want to, but if we're looking to streamline the cast, his peripheral character is an easy cut.
Odds of Returning: 75: 1

Sal Romano
Played By: Brian Batt
Last We Saw Him: Calling his wife from a pay phone before cruising the after he was fired from Sterling Cooper.
Why Stay: Well, he is effectively gone, but the way his storyline ended, he always seemed like he'd be back for more. Plus his "gay in the closet" storyline has tons of ways it could play out and lots of modern day implications.
Why Leave: He is already gone. Don could rehire him, but their main client is American Tobacco, the company that had him fired in the first place, so that seems about as likely as a Judy Garland Resurrection Tour.
Odds of Returning: 100 : 1 (but we really want him back!)

Robin Veith, who got credit on the classic episode "The Wheel" has left Sterling Cooper, we are told. Veith is said to be an old pal of showrunner Matthew Weiner from way back, raising concerns that a shake-up could be afoot on the show.

However, as the writing staff is currently in hiatus between seasons, this may just be the time when people who have decided that they are moving on announce that they are moving on. After hyping up Gordon's departure, Nikki Finke reports that it is in fact, staff turnover as usual. Update: Finke emailed to take issue with our characterization of her Gordon reporting: "The point of my post remains the same: how very unusual for a writer to be fired less than a month after winning the Emmy. That is why I wrote this in the first place." She also wanted to point out that she heard about Veith before us. So there.

If anyone know's anything more about what's afoot, we'd love to hear from you. Drop a line to your friends at Gawker, confidentiality guaranteed.

Finke offers one explanation from a source in the show...

"One of the great things about Mad Men is the tradition that Matt has established of offering higher-level opportunities to staff, writers and artists in all of the various departments. From the beginning, Matt has fought to get people approved by the studio which almost always lobbied for him to hire more experienced people instead."

"We think [Kater's] done a great job, particularly for someone whose career has progressed so quickly. Now, however, Matt has reluctantly decided that their relationship has reached its full potential. She'll be missed, but the series has consistently benefited from the influx of new writer talent, and there's absolutely no doubt that Kater will continue to have unprecedented success in her career as she spreads her wings. She leaves Mad Men with our love and respect and a well-deserved Emmy."

...that's clearly in Weiner's camp. Maybe this is the truth! Or maybe she might as well have placed an email from the show's flack in exchange for a better scoop later on. But the truth can't be this simple. Finke—who exercises a Machiavellian hand over the comments in her posts—left it to her commenters to speculate. And by speculate, we mean, speak for her. And I imagine someone at AMC is asking Finke why she's not deleting comments like she normally does on issues she wants to control.

Let's look at some of the more interesting theories:

• Matthew Weiner had a strictly unprofessional relationship with her, or as the commenter put it:

  *cough*LETTERMAN*cough*

  Well, Gordon did have a very quick rise through the rankings of Mad Men. Again: started as Weiner's assistant. Became a writers' assistant. Weiner then let her co-write the last season finale with him, and now, she's a staff writer for the third season. Or was, until she got fired. Staff writing jobs are not easy to come by, obviously. Sure, it's topical. And maybe it's worth noting that this is the first show Weiner's ever been a showrunner on. I somehow doubt this theory. If something inappropriate took place, why would he fire her? Probability: unlikely.
  
  

• Jealousy Issues. Another commenter writes:

  There was a really weird moment during the acceptance where Matt kind of 'snatched' the Emmy from her...The photo gets at it but I remember it being uncomfortable to watch. I always [sic] trhought they worked with these relatively inexperienced people on this show primarily for financial reasons. Allows them to put as much money as possible up on the screen.

  I'm not sure I buy the "inexperienced writers" line so much as the one above: that Mad Men hires writers with low quotes because they can afford to do so by reputation, and allocate the money elsewhere on the show. Weiner's a notorious control freak, as evidenced by the show, obviously. Hollywood loves a young, hot writer, and Gordon's cute and staffed on a hit show. Maybe this made Weiner uncomfortable. Or maybe Gordon's ego from the win outgrew Weiner's ability to micromanage, which could've been marginally. Even so, another commenter draws a comparison to Peggy and Don Draper's relationship, noting that this could give a certain scene from earlier in the season more significance...

  One just goes balls to the wall:

  Anyone who believes this horseshit is completely naïve. Matt Weiner is the lowest of the low in our business. He is a egomaniac and the likelihood is that he was incensed that he had to share credit and let alone an Emmy with her. A lowly former writer's assistant. As far as he is concerned, he is solely responsible for the success of this show and no other writer, producer, director, actor, key grip have done anything to contribute to the show's success. For Pete's sake, he didn't even let Kater Gordon say a word when they got up on stage. It was her moment as well but Weiner made it ALL about him.

  Though egomaniacs are kind of par for the course, no?
  
  

• And another one just thinks Matt was unloading unnecessary cargo:

  The only episode she wrote by herself was "The Fog" and it was terrible. Looks like Matt got too excited and promoted her too quickly…

Update: Finke posted from a writer who supposedly knows by Weiner and Gordon, who insists there was no "Letterman" play involved. "She totally got the show and deserved the break she got. There was NOTHING illicit in her relationship with Matt." 'Figured. But Finke has yet to posit any theories...

[Photo via Mark J. Terrill/AP]

"I don't know anything about next season—I don't even know if it's happening," he told us ominously at the InStyle Golden Globes afterparty, adding that the show's fate right now is "unknowable." [...]

"You know me, I'm very forthcoming," Weiner said when asked why negotiations have taken so long. "And I don't even know what to tell you. I don't know what to say…I've done everything I can. That's all I can tell you."

So when might it be sorted out? "I have no idea. I'm surprised we don't know already."

Fortunately, Weiner has a secret, fleshy weapon: Christina Hendricks, who tells E! that there's no show without him. Melissa George, this is your chance! Pad your bra and call your agent!

• Mad Men Boss Says Show's Fate Is "Unknowable" [E!]

Yup, you guessed it: Lionsgate has yet to strike a deal with Mad Men mastermind Matthew Weiner to come back (despite over four months of negotiating). Still, that didn't stop AMC president Charles Collier from letting the press at TCA know today that new episodes of the series would premiere this summer. Is the network playing hardball with Weiner by announcing a start date, figuring it will spur him toward a deal? Or does Collier have inside information on the negotiations, which will reward Weiner with a four-season contract, an outdoor campaign that isn't totally vague and listless, and a clause that allows him to take home Joan Holloway's clingy costumes (about that, the less said the better)?

• AMC panel... [THR]

The creator and exec producer of AMC's critical darling is set to make the rounds of the majors in the next few weeks as he shops for a big-bucks overall deal. The timing is hardly accidental, given the approach of Sept. 21's Primetime Emmy Awards, in which "Mad Men" is a top contender with 16 noms.

It's understood that "Mad Men" producer Lionsgate TV and AMC have just begun their discussions on a third-season pickup for the period ensembler. Weiner's continued involvement with the show, a passion project that he nurtured as a spec for years before getting a yes from AMC, is sure to be part of those talks.

What a Mad Men might look like without the notoriously (from what we hear) controlling showrunner would be difficult to imagine, though it's safe to say that minus Weiner's indelible creative imprint, the AMC drama would be in danger of morphing into a different series altogether. We'd hate to see Season 3 begin with the title card "23 Years Later..." only to find our treasured rotation of series regulars replaced by cheaper unknowns, puzzling over how best to market a Rubik's Cube as Sterling Cooper discovers its wackier side in the Me Decade.

• Showrunner shops for 'Mad' money [Variety]