Documentaries have sometimes managed to crossover from Sundance recognition for most of the last decade, with films like Born Into Brothels and An Inconvenient Truth winning Oscars among nominees including Capturing the Friedmans, Murderball and No End In Sight. But that trend exploded this morning, with three of the five Documentary Feature nominees having launched at Sundance, and two of them — Man on Wire and Trouble the Water — having won their respective sections at the fest in 2008.

Meanwhile, the dramatic award winners coming out of Park City are usually lucky just to find distribution and modest theatrical grosses before shuffling off to video and cable. Little Miss Sunshine broke out as a Sundance premiere in 2006 en route to four nominations and two wins, but it didn't have to drag the mixed blessing of Sundance's Grand Jury Prize — usually given to challenging films with Big Social Themes — all the way to Oscar night behind its ubiquitous yellow van.

This year, though? In addition to the doc nominees, Sundance's 2008 winner Frozen River will compete for Best Actress (Melissa Leo) and Best Original Screenplay (by director Courtney Hunt). The Visitor's Richard Jenkins is a Best Actor contender. Martin McDonagh earned his own Original Screenplay nomination for In Bruges, last year's opening-night film.

On one hand we're inclined to invoke the fluke quotient here, but watch what Sony Pictures Classics — whose unqualified commercial success with Frozen River will only improve after today's news — does with this year's Sundance acquisition An Education, which is roundly recognized as one of 2009's best films to date and features awards-caliber work by lead actress Carey Mulligan, supporting actors Peter Sarsgaard and Alfred Molina, screenwriter Nick Hornby and director Lone Scherfig. If Frozen River was SPC's Park City prototype, An Education may be its first sportscar off the line after tinkering with the awards-season machinery its co-presidents Michael Barker and Tom Bernard know so well. Wait and see.

WHAT'S NEW: Pineapple Express is exactly what we needed in our post-Dark Knight hype doldrums — an unapologetically puerile, profane, violent and really fucking funny stoner comedy that will provoke neither death threats nor over-the-top box-office chatter. That said, the two films will square off for No. 1, and frankly, these are the only Summer Games we're interested in. We alluded yesterday to Pineapple's striking opening-day take; its $12 million was the best Wednesday opening ever for an R-rated comedy in August (or some other ridiculous milestone), and Thursday's $6.2 million was a decent enough follow-up as well. We're calling our shot for a Pineapple upset, even if it has to cheat with a two-day head start: $29 million for the three-day and $47 million for the five-day, versus TDK's $26 million over the three-day frame. Take it to the bank.

We're also fond of Elegy, the sober Philip Roth adaptation that arguably features Penelope Cruz's best English-language performance; other new releases include the long-awaited (we think) Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2; the segregated Mardi Gras doc The Order of Myths, the historical wine-snob dramedy Bottle Shock; and the Anglo-Jewish-soccer-coming-of-age flick Sixty Six.

THE BIG LOSER: None, believe it or not — with no Kevin Costner or Eddie Murphy films on the docket, everyone and everything seems to be set for a good weekend.

THE UNDERDOG: To the folks down on the brilliant documentary Man on Wire because of its occasional reenactments and other genre-bending tricks: Fuck off. This chronicle of Phillipe Petit, the French daredevil who walked on a tightrope between the World Trade Center towers 34 years ago yesterday, is by any means a gripping drama of ambition, friendship and, in the end, the "artistic crime of the century." Director James Marsh splices new interviews into Petit's film and photo archives for a behind-the-scenes procedural every bit as astonishing as last year's No End in Sight — and obviously quite a bit more fun. We could go on all day, but just take the recommendation and run. It's brilliant stuff.

FOR SHUT-INS: This week's new DVD's include this year's Best Foreign Language Film Oscar-winner The Counterfeiters, the flatlining Heather Graham comedy Miss Conception, the Abigail Breslin/Jodie Foster effort Nim's Island and, shockingly not until now, Get Smart: Season One.

All right, your turn: Is this the week The Dark Knight goes down? And does it even matter with Tropic Thunder around the corner? Or are you more of a Traveling Pants follower? Be honest — we're all friends here. Call your shots!