SURE LOCKS
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Dark Knight
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

If you're as bored of reading about these four Best Picture contenders as we are of typing them, congratulations! They've been nom-nom-nommed for everything (thanks, TenTimesFiltered!), and they're not about to stop now.

LIKELY NOMINEES
Frost/Nixon

For as much as people have expected Frost/Nixon to win a Best Picture slot, we haven't talked to anyone who was personally touting it. This nomination would be the one of the five that people would struggle to remember next year; we'll see if people have already forgotten.

DARK HORSES
Wall-E
The Wrestler

Which means there's hope, Wall-E and Ram! Just, you know, not that much of it. Still, our fingers (both those that are mechanical claws, and those that are bound with wrestling tape) are crossed. Good luck!

SURE LOCKS
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Sean Penn, Milk

Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn have been two of the biggest no-brainers (hey, take that however you want!) since this Oscar season began. Winner gets Bai Ling! Or is that what the loser gets?

LIKELY NOMINEES
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Old folks, plus old folks with Brad Pitt's face digitally superimposed on them. Pitt would be the likeliest to fall to a surging dark horse; some call this performance his best and most expansive yet, while others find it too recessive to reward.

DARK HORSES
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

Revolutionary Road's hopes at this point lay entirely on Kate Winslet, so Leonardo DiCaprio's as doomed as his character. Richard Jenkins could surge in for the inexplicably well-liked The Visitor, but his performance is about as subtle and reactive as Pitt's. If Jenkins could promise Angelina Jolie as his date, that would probably help.

SURE LOCKS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Meryl Streep, Doubt

In a category that's never really crowned a frontrunner, Anne Hathaway and Meryl Streep were always sure bets. Now, though, Kate Winslet comes charging in on the strength of her Golden Globe win for Revolutionary Road; it didn't affect her sure nomination, but suddenly this category seems like the one she'll campaign for.

LIKELY NOMINEES
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Amongst our Defamer predictions this season, Sally Hawkins and Cate Blanchett are the shakiest of the "likely" nominees. Sure, they'd seem to fit the Oscar profile: Hawkins has been a critics' favorite, while Blanchett ages an entire lifetime on-screen. So why do they still feel like vulnerable picks?

DARK HORSES
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long

Winslet accurately summed up Angelina Jolie's buzz at the Golden Globes: "Who's the other one?" Despite her star power and showy (if one-note) performance, Jolie hasn't been able to crack the resistance some in the industry have to this movie. Thus, the dark horses with the best chances are Melissa Leo and Kristin Scott Thomas. We'll find out if anyone but us saw their films.

SURE LOCKS
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

For sheer ability to wrangle, Boyle and Nolan are way up there. The last few months have been kind to Nolan's direction; fewer people remember the incomprehensible third-act action sequences, instead recalling the clean, Heat-like set pieces early on.

LIKELY NOMINEES
Gus Van Sant, Milk
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler

Van Sant is in because Milk will be, while Fincher brought all his technological expertise to bear on Button (it's just too bad that the similarly CG-obsessed Robert Zemeckis stole his thunder by claiming this Gump-like territory first). The Director slot often subs in one nominee who's discordant with the Best Picture choices, and we have a feeling Ron Howard's work on Frost/Nixon will fall to the passion people feel for Darren Aronofsky's The Wrestler.

DARK HORSES
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino

Still, we'd never count Howard or Clint Eastwood out totally. Though we'd be happy to do it to Sam Mendes!

SURE LOCKS
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Josh Brolin, Milk

Pundits have spent the last few months wondering whether there's someone, anyone, who poses a threat to Heath Ledger in this category, and slowly, Josh Brolin has emerged as the best (yet still wildly unlikely) candidate. The Academy loves to reward a strong comeback and past snubs; unfortunately for Brolin, a vote for Ledger satisfies the same cravings, with the added element of a career benediction. Still, at least Brolin can one-up Ledger when it comes to campaigning!

LIKELY NOMINEES
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Robert Downey Jr. also offers one of the year's biggest comeback stories, and he's well-liked, but there's no way the Academy will give a trophy to someone playing black (instead of an actual black person—imagine the headlines!), so he'll have to accept that it's an honor to be nominated and cry himself to sleep on his bed of Marvel money. Hoffman is a gimme—if not one that anyone feels passionately about—and Patel will squeak in as the face of a movie stocked with unknowns.

DARK HORSES
Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon
James Franco, Milk
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Tom Cruise, Tropic Thunder

If Patel falls, there are a host of hungry actors ready to claim the fifth spot. Michaels Sheen and Shannon were touted as early contenders, but they're low-profile actors (and their films aren't exactly overperforming). James Franco had a great year as well, but Brolin was the only supporting Milk performer with a real arc. As for Tom Cruise, HAHAHAHA. No. Enjoy your Golden Globe nomination, Tom!

SURE LOCKS
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Viola Davis, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Penélope Cruz was the early favorite in this category, but she's since been usurped by two actresses who run the gamut of what can be defined as a supporting performance: Viola Davis, whose Doubt role is brief but ferociously focused, and Kate Winslet, whose Globe-winning Reader performance would almost certainly be slotted in the lead race any other year. Also, Davis cries (with a snot trickle, even!) and Winslet gets naked. This is how the Academy likes to see its actresses.

LIKELY NOMINEES
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Speaking of nudity, unlikely Oscar alumna Marisa Tomei had her third nomination in the bag as soon as she revealed that her Wrestler stripper wore nipple rings. Now that's Jumbo's Clown Room-worthy verisimilitude! The fifth slot is harder to fill, but we give it to Taraji P. Henson, the warmest thing in the often-Arctic Benjamin Button.

DARK HORSES
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Debra Winger, Rachel Getting Married
Amy Adams, Doubt

The Academy has nominated Amy Adams once before for playing a naive young woman who wants to see the good in people. We have a feeling they'll decide "been there, done that"—especially since Davis might siphon votes from her costar in this category. If anyone is poised to upset, it's Rosemarie DeWitt for putting up with Anne Hathaway, the dishwasher sequence, and all those musicians in Rachel Getting Married. If not an Oscar, give the poor woman a medal!

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Boston Legal - James Spader
Breaking Bad - Bryan Cranston
Dexter - Michael C. Hall
House - Hugh Laurie
In Treatment - Gabriel Byrne
Mad Men - Jon Hamm

Don't even bother, House fans. Though Hugh Laurie turned in the compelling, two-hour season finale as his submission, Emmy voters love three-time winner James Spader, and his submission (which finds him passionately arguing a case before the Supreme Court) provides Spader with his biggest tour-de-force yet. If he's ever to lose, it won't be this year.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Brothers & Sisters - Sally Field
The Closer - Kyra Sedgwick
Damages - Glenn Close
Law & Order: Special Victims Unit - Mariska Hargitay
Saving Grace - Holly Hunter

A toss-up! In a category filled with film refugees deigning to do TV (which Emmy loves), Sally Field won last year and notoriously gave a bleeped speech that will only solidify her as the incumbent in voters' memories. Her biggest threat is the cool, nefarious Close, but we'll side with inertia and predict Field as the winner once more.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Boston Legal - William Shatner
Damages - Ted Danson
Damages - Zeljko Ivanek
Lost - Michael Emerson
Mad Men - John Slattery

All but two of the nominees are newcomers to this category, and last year's winner Terry O'Quinn is nowhere to be found. We think voters will reward his co-star, Lost MVP Michael Emerson, whose blockbuster episode submission included horse-riding, piano playing, action scenes, foreign languages, and a juicy scene grieving the death of his daughter. Plus, Emerson is no Emmy novice: he won the award in 2001 for guest-starring on The Practice.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Boston Legal - Candice Bergen
Brothers & Sisters - Rachel Griffiths
Grey's Anatomy - Sandra Oh
Grey's Anatomy - Chandra Wilson
In Treatment - Dianne Wiest

If the category seems oddly mild this year, it's because of 2007 winner Katherine Heigl's infamous decision to pull her name out of consideration. As a reward to the co-stars who bit their lips and suffered in silence, we expect either Oh or Wilson to pull through as the winner, with a slight edge to Oh (after all, she once had to deal with Isaiah Washington, too).

Outstanding Drama Series
Boston Legal
Damages
Dexter
House
Lost
Mad Men

For party crashers Damages and Dexter, it's an honor just to be nominated. Like them, Mad Men is little-seen, but the difference is that it's watched by all the right people (and heavily appeals to older Emmy voters), so we expect a first-season surge to victory. What Would Don Draper Do if he had to go home empty-handed?

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
30 Rock - Alec Baldwin
Monk - Tony Shalhoub
The Office - Steve Carell
Pushing Daisies - Lee Pace
Two and a Half Men - Charlie Sheen

With last year's surprise winner Ricky Gervais out of the mix, the stage is set for Alec Baldwin to take home the first of what will most likely be several Emmys for his role as Jack Donaghy on 30 Rock. Clinching the deal? Baldwin submitted the episode containing this season's instant classic therapy scene:

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
30 Rock - Tina Fey
The New Adventures of Old Christine - Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Samantha Who? - Christina Applegate
Ugly Betty - America Ferrera
Weeds - Mary-Louise Parker

If this is not Tina Fey, Sarah Palin will have all the Emmy voters fired.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Entourage - Kevin Dillon
Entourage - Jeremy Piven
How I Met Your Mother - Neil Patrick Harris
The Office - Rainn Wilson
Two and a Half Men - Jon Cryer

While Neil Patrick Harris has had a career-best year, How I Met Your Mother is still little-seen. The Emmys fear change, especially in the comedy category (five-time winner Candice Bergen and four-time winner John Laroquette both eventually withdrew their names to give other actors a chance), so this award should go to the Pivs in a walk.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Pushing Daisies - Kristin Chenoweth
Samantha Who? - Jean Smart
Saturday Night Live - Amy Poehler
Two and a Half Men - Holland Taylor
Ugly Betty - Vanessa Williams

My Name is Earl's Jaime Pressly took home this award last year, but this time she's not even nominated (neither was dark horse Jenna Fischer for The Office). Kudos to Amy Poehler for becoming the first modern Saturday Night Live performer to score a supporting actor nomination, but Emmy loves a veteran, so we expect this to go to two-time winner Jean Smart.

Outstanding Comedy Series
30 Rock
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Entourage
The Office
Two and a Half Men

Curb Your Enthusiasm is a weak-fill in for last year's nominee Ugly Betty; frankly, we're surprised that the dazzling Pushing Daisies pilot couldn't muster up the votes to fill that fifth slot (the strike-truncated season could have sapped its momentum). All the buzz is with 30 Rock right now — not only did it win in this category last year, but none of its challengers are coming off their best seasons. If anything besides Tina Fey's expertly crafted sitcom wins, we promise to liveblog an episode of Two and a Half Men as penance.