In his intro to the list, Guru-master David Poland cautions, "about half of the contenders haven't been seen. Darts are flying in the dark. Some are hitting expected titles and others are real surprises."

How then does the punditry deliver such judgments on films which may still be getting worked over in the cutting room? A combination of factors go into a Oscar savants' calculations - first, as noted above, hitting certain tried and true notes (historic epic, biopic, Clint Eastwood directed) move a film straight onto the field, no questions asked. And then the pundits note the buzz from friends at the studios and in the marketing departments; what they are hearing about the film. One will note that Lovely Bones, which just on the basis of its provenance seemed to have the Best Picture crown locked up two years ago before it was ever shot, now falls surprisingly low on the Guru scale. Could there be some bad buzz flying about from those few on the inside who have seen the film?

One should also note that the September buzz, now 184 days before the March 7, 2010 Oscar telecast, is almost always wrong in some very huge ways. Last year's chart just after Toronto , Frost/Nixon, Milk and Benjamin Button were the early favorites, far outshining eventual winner Slumdog Millionaire, and The Soloist, which ended up being so dreary it ended up dropping out of the Oscar race,its release was pushed back to the following year, was in a respectable seventh place on the pundits round-up.

In 2007, the ultimately dreadful Atonement was far and away the pundits' best bet. In 2006, the early charts were led by Dreamgirls, Flags of Our Fathers and Babel, all of which fizzled far short of trophy night.

Perhaps the greatest fun of the Oscar race is watching these pre-season flame-outs. Every year brings a film or two massively bloated and portentious in its very silhouette; it can be seen standing on a mountain-top overlooking Hollywood, waiting to come down and claim its destiny, which then sputters and tumbles all the way down the hill, hitting Sunset Blvd. with a thud. The aforementioned Soloist comes to mind. Phantom of the Opera, Cold Mountain, Memoirs of a Giesha - wonderful car wrecks all.

Of course, a good percent of the time these bloated monstrosities actually win the race (Gladiator, The English Patient, Titanic and Braveheart, to name a few).

And no Oscar race is officially underway without the first harumph of the season from the LA Times' Patrick Goldstein. To the horror of the Times' ad sales department, Goldstein has been waging war on the Oscar race for several years now, every season making the shocking case that the Oscar derby is not about art, why it's just a contest! And a silly one at that! (Imagine, calling the Oscars silly! The cajones!)

Goldstein's brave stand against contests kicked off this week with his plea to the world to ignore the Oscars, at least until he tells you its time to pay attention. This year, he seems to be bringing some muscle into the mix, promising to review the early predictions next February and hold erring pundits accountable.

At Moviecitynews, the Gurus O' Gold pundits panel have offered their picks on this year's Oscar favorites, in a Best Picture race thrown into pandemonium by the announcement that there will be ten nominees this year, rather than the standard five. The Academy's hope seems to have been that by broadening the field, they would make room for some crowd pleasers, some movies that people have actually seen, to get what used to be called "the general public" perhaps interested in what has largely become a battle of obscure indie dramas.

If that was their intent, however, the Gurus offer little hope in the top slot.

Out of the gate, The Gurus have selected as the one film they clearly have all seen at the slight favorite: Kathryn Bigelow's Iraq bomb defusing drama The Hurt Locker, which after two and a half months of release has raked in all of eleven million dollars.

After Hurt Locker, the field is cluttered with various usual suspecty types of trophy bait, whose log lines and proper nouns read like mash-ups of contenders of yore; A Clint Eastwood directed bio of Nelson Mandela (Invictus), a Weinstein produced musical (Nine), a Jason Juno Reitman/George Clooney film about a corporate downsizer (Up In the Air), the story of an overweight, illiterate teen in Harlem (Precious) Peter Jackson's rendition of a beloved favorite of contemporary quasi-snooty fiction (The Lovely Bones) and Hillary Swank in an Amelia Earhart biopic (Amelia).

That's right people, it is on. Oscars 2010 is here to stay, for the next six months.

WHAT'S NEW: There's no wanting for prestige or variety this weekend, with Fox's remake of The Day the Earth Stood Still leading a saturated box-office charge on 3,600 screens. This time around, Keanu Reeves arrives from space to portend our imminent doom, evincing a timely environmental-awareness message with the aid of Jennifer Connelly and fitfully clusmy CGI. And if there's anything holiday moviegoers love, it's a Keanu apocalypse; expect Earth to pull around $38.3 million.

The next biggest opening is something called Delgo, the sci-fi quasi-Romeo & Juliet rendered with discarded Pixar 2.0 software and the budget voice talent of Freddie Prinze Jr., Jennifer Love Hewitt, Malcolm McDowell and Burt Reynolds, among others. We like this one for about $3.2 million en route to Flopz™, neck-and-neck with the Latino ensemble (plus Debra Messing for gringa kicks) laffer Nothing Like the Holidays at around $3.3 million.

Doubt, meanwhile, opens small this week against fellow Oscar groveler The Reader; the former is faring far better with critics than the latter (unfairly, we might add), but the Kate Winslet lookie-loo factor won't disappoint the Weinstein Company when the numbers come in Sunday night, probably around $41,000 per screen. Also, if you've got four and a half hours and a seat cushion to spare, pack a lunch and check out Che in its one-week-only Academy qualifying run. It's the kind of thing you can tell your grandkids about years from now when they tug on your sleeve and ask you to regale them with stories of cinema's good old bloated days.

A few stars are actually smattered elsewhere in the mire: Ethan Hawke and Mark Ruffalo's Beantown gang drama What Doesn't Kill You opens on three screens, while Michelle Williams's spare girl-loses-dog indie Wendy and Lucy arrives on two. Also opening: The noirish Dark Streets; the animated fantasy Dragon Hunters; the stop-motion Oscar hopeful $9.99; the Chinese vanity project Waiting in Beijing; the Kim Basinger revenge flick While She Was Out; and the polish Holiday tale Hania. Whew.

THE BIG LOSER: Not so much a "loser" as an example of what we wish there was less of in the world, Timecrimes is an acclaimed Spanish thriller that nevertheless orbits around the genre conventions of time travel. Not to be arbitrary about it, but dear film industry: Please let the time-travel movie die. They're ultimately the same hoary stunt performed again and again, illogically at worst (Primer) and amusingly at best (Back to the Future), and almost always forgettably. Let Timecrimes end it. Please.

THE UNDERDOG: Speaking of going out gracefully, Clint Eastwood says his performance in Gran Torino is his last. And why not? Eastwood's late-career revisionist streak has knocked off its last myth: The vigilante hero, a man who'd sooner revolt in Dirty Harry than keep pace with the degradation of social order. Torino's grizzled Korean War vet still takes the same vengeance on Hmong gangs and black thugs overtaking his Detroit suburb, but essentially in the service of a multiethnic utopia perceivable just over the horizon. (He even gives his Silver Star and titular vehicle to the tormented young man he's taken under his wing, a little more optimistic bellwether than Harry Callahan's climactic badge-tossing in 1971.) As a straight drama, Gran Torino isn't especially good — sort of a violent, profane revenge epic crossbred with an afterschool special — but! Viewed in context with the last four decades of Eastwood's mercury, it's a strikingly rich, funny, elegant and utterly fascinating valedictory.

FOR SHUT-INS: New DVD's this week include The Dark Knight, the thrilling, Oscar-chasing doc Man on Wire, the first four seasons of Happy Days, and holiday-ready complete-series box sets of The Wire, Get Smart and Deadwood.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button tied Milk for most nominations with eight, including Best Picture, Best Director for David Fincher, and acting nods for Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett. The remaining nine selections for the year's best film proved about as inclusive as a Ben Lyons-hosted announcement show would suggest:

· Changeling
· The Dark Knight
· Doubt
· Frost/Nixon
· Milk
· The Reader
· Slumdog Millionaire
· Wall-E
· The Wrestler

Clint Eastwood went unrecognized, however, for either of his two directorial efforts, Changeling and Gran Torino, though he was nominated for Best Actor for his grizzled, growling racist in the latter. The Wrestler's Darren Aronofsky was also overlooked in favor of Christopher Nolan and Ron Howard, not likely the last time you'll see that indignity poisoning the awards well.

Acting nominations were much more charitable, even surprising, with the Valerie Plame/Judith Miller tale Nothing But the Truth pulling Actress and Supporting Actress recognition for Kate Beckinsale and Vera Farmiga, respectively. Robert Downey Jr. found a Supporting Actor slot for his blackface turn in Tropic Thunder, while Milk's support tandem Josh Brolin and James Franco earned nods as well. The downside: The BFCA couldn't find a place for Frost/Nixon's superb Michael Sheen, or even add him to the category's five nominees; every other acting category had six nods apiece.

But consolation for Rudin and Co.: Doubt was represented in three of the four acting categories (plus ensemble cast and screenplay). Then again, Winslet's Reader performance received a Supporting nod while her Revolutionary turn netted zilch. Surely there's no pressure ahead of Thursday's Golden Globe nominations;

• 2009 BFCA Nominees [BFCA]

Clint Eastwood
Not sure he really needs replacing (or can be replaced at all), as he's sort of a singular cultural institution unto himself. But if we're in the mood for a gruff, crime fightin', six gun shootin', conservative with a puddly sentimental heart, then I think we need look no further than Keanu Reeves. Don't go crazy! Yes, I understand that there was a grumbly gravitas that Eastwood brought to his silly actioners that Keanu decidedly does not bring to his, but they're kind of the same. Both, frankly, can't act for beans but it doesn't matter! There's something criminally appealing about them. They're dazzling us with their flat line delivery while pickpocketing our souls! Plus, Keanu's 44 now (can you believe that??) so he'll soon be ambling into safely Grizzled territory. Then he can start directing pictures about weary men in the weary world who wearily do weary things, like kill their molested childhood best friends or kill their ladyboxer protege, just like Clint! Just think, in thirty years time "Whoa." will be the new "Make my day."

Joaquin Phoenix
Well, this is a little difficult because he wasn't really that much of a movie star to begin with. But the Oscar-nominated star of Gladiator and the Johnny Cash biopic Walk The Line was getting big. He's got that brooding strangeness, a willful devotion to his craft resembling an angry Johnny Depp. So who could fill these curious little worn-out shoes? How about similarly-faced Gossip Girl fop Ed "Chuckles Bass" Westwick? He plays in a band, just like Joaquin! And he's shown some prissy talent and a penchant for looking gloweringly stupid while offering terse, wannabe cryptic answers to inane interview questions. Whether he's got the weird talent that Phoenix has (had?) remains to be seem. But right now he's shaping up to be a fine candidate.

Nicole Kidman
OK, she's not "officially" retiring, but she did mention it off-handedly in an interview recently! An icy internationalist with a taste for the artsy out-there movies and the big commercial films? Kidman is sort of a dream come true for Hollywood (or, at least, she was until she had a long string of bombs—The Invasion anyone?—and her face became strangely plasticine). Does any young actress have her strange, sad alien grace, those same purring smarts? Harry Potter sidekick/burgeoning sex symbol Emma Watson might in a few years. As might a couple other young actresses. But really Sienna Miller seems best poised to take the mantle. She's not American either! And she became famous for dating a famous guy (Jude Law) before she became a famous actress (is she a famous actress yet?), just like Nicole did with a now-forgotten character actor named Tom Cruise. She's cold and probably talented and already inured to the tabloid frenzy.

Angelina Jolie
Luckily, gloriously be-lipped charitably minded multi-culti talented actresses just grow on trees. We kid, we kid! Angelina Jolies are pretty rare! There are like only two of them per billion people. Which means 11 others exist, and we must find them. Who else can shoot guns and throw knives convincingly one minute, then sob and moan and act a little nuts effectively the next? Maybe this young Kristen Stewart from Twinklight could do it. She seems weird and grumpy and above-it-all. Someone put an Uzi in her hand and she how she does. Though she doesn't have the natural beauty of Jolie. Oh fuck it. You know what? She said it would probably be thirty years before she retired anyway. The new Angelina Jolie is Angelina Jolie. She's only 33 after all. (Can you believe it?)

Really the problem is that the whole talent pool has become so diluted. We're not saying that there aren't talented, beautiful people anymore, just the opposite. There are way too many out there. Meg Ryan was in every romantic comedy for a few years. That was it. No one else. Now we've got Elizabeth Banks and Kate Hudson and Sandra Bullock (sort of?) and Anne Hathaway and etc. etc. Too many. We blame the internet. We're not sure why, but this is probably its fault.

After the jump: What surely-no-longer-virginal Disney Channel star is about to get her own show on a tanking network?

· Hilary Duff has signed a talent and development deal with NBC. They plan on building a new series around the star, tentatively titled, Law & Order: Hilary Duff Unit. [THR]
· HD consumers prefer Blu-ray 10-to-1 over other -ray Colorz. [THR]

He wasn't really going there, we soon learned (he was only slightly more candid at the recent New Yorker Festival, vaguely alluding to Palin's truthfulness in her debate with Joe Biden). But as reformed Republicans go, Eastwood still packs a robust skepticism alongside his tux when he travels.

"My mortgage is in the toilet, too," he replied. "I haven't been very active in politics. Yes, I started out as a Republican in 1951; I was a young 21-year-old in the Army, and I wanted to vote for Dwight Eisenhower. He, like all politicians, was always promising something, and he promised he would go to Korea and end the Korean War. But the Republican Party, as has the Democratic Party, has changed dramatically in the 50-some years that I've been involved with it, so I've sort of drifted to a more Libertarian point of view. The Libertarian Party never got going as a party — just leave everybody alone. It was very appealing to a guy like myself who came up in the '30s and watched my parents struggle through the Depression and [who] nowadays is wanting for nothing.

"Now, of course, everybody is promising everything," Eastwood continued. "That's the only way to get elected: You have to promise to give people all kinds of stuff. You have to give away new cars like on Oprah or something. We'll give you anything to go down and vote. It's kind of perverted politics as far as I'm concerned. Whether Mr. McCain or Mr. Obama... Whatever happens there, who knows? There are a lot of promises going on there, too. It's a very confusing era." We couldn't agree more — we'll be so much happier when no one has to worry any longer about distinguishing Palin from Tina Fey.

[Photo: Getty Images]

"I was at an NBA finals, Lakers versus the Celtics," Lee says. "[At] halftime [I'm] going to the restroom. I saw Steven Spielberg, Jeffrey Katzenberg and Eddie Murphy sitting together. I stopped by to say hi and Jeffrey jokes, 'Leave Clint alone' and we all laugh.

"But Steven and I went off to the side and discussed it, and I asked him to relay a message to Clint that I meant no disrespect, that I was extending the olive branch," he adds. "Steve called Clint in the morning the next day. And it's finito."

See? Think how much longer that DreamWorks deal would have dragged on without a guy like that at the negotiating table. Next up: Saving Mickey Mouse from Hamas.

• Sugar & Spike [NYP]

This week's installment also includes: Clint Eastwood, Jerry Seinfeld, Ryan Phillippe, Kirsten Dunst and Justin Long, Farrah Fawcett, James Woods, Dane Cook, John C. Reilly, Lauren Conrad, Ellen Pompeo, P. Diddy (twice in the same night!), Jared Leto, Kevin Federline, Sandra Oh, Seth Green, Balthazar Getty, Pete Wentz, Briam Baumgartner, Zachary Levi, Ciara, Adam "Seymour Butts" Glasser and more.

TUESDAY, AUGUST 21
· Sitting in a booth at the recently re-opened Fab's on Van Nuys Blvd in Sherman Oaks at 8pm, Mr. "Hey, Spike Lee, Shut Your Pie-Hole" himself, CLINT EASTWOOD, speaking in hushed tones while dining with Sinatra's favorite opening comic, Tom Dreesen. I couldn't hear if Clint said to the waiter, "Go ahead, make my Chicken Marsala." Even at 93 [Ed. Note: He's actually only 78], Clint looks like he could kick some serious butt.

FRIDAY, AUGUST 22
· It was celeb night on Friday 8/22 at the AMC theater at the Century City Mall. Spotted PETE WENTZ standing outside with friends. His hair is flat ironed to oblivion and he is short, almost alarmingly so. Kept his hoodie on the whole time. Jessica's pregnant sister was nowhere in sight.

Then, a few minutes later, ELLEN POMPEO (that's Meredith Grey to you) walked by hand-in-hand with her hubby. Super skinny and wearing gross, skin tight white jeans, white shirt with trashy sky high black heels. They were in a rush which made her look like she walks funny because she clearly couldn't handle those heels. We decided she was dressed like a Staten Island prostitute.

We decided to hold out a few more minutes on the hope we would spot an elusive A-lister. And before we knew it, PUFF DADDY walked by sans entourage! He is indeed puffy. Mr. Mogul needs to get back to running marathons for charity. He was wearing sunglasses. At 10:30pm. And he was texting while walking briskly. Who says men can't multi-task?

· Equinox West Hollywood. PUFF DADDY (again!) makes his entourage wait in the juice bar while he grabs a steam.

· JUSTIN LONG and KIRSTEN DUNST were spotted Friday night at the Dragonfly, checking out the show Point Break LIVE! She sat behind him w/ her girlfriends, but Justin kept turning around to talk to her & see her reaction to the craziness onstage.

·Bristol Farms, West Hollywood, 5:30PM (ish). Looking determined to get out and towing a tow-headed child: RYAN PHILLIPPE. Taller than I would have expected, and beefier (but by no means tall). I don't know if he's moved to the neighborhood but the shopping cart was brimming. In case he is, a word of advice: I know it's technically West Hollywood, but the look you should be going for should be more "Daddy out shopping for groceries with my kids on Beverly" and less "Out shopping for a Daddy to buy my groceries on Santa Monica".

SATURDAY, AUGUST 23
· He's not a household name, but with 33 film and 40 television credits, let's just say I was surprised to see SEAN WHALEN selling blenders at the Burbank Costco on Saturday, miked up, dressed in a white lab coat and white paper hat. He usually plays nerds, but now he's extolling the virtues of raw food smoothies. Ouch.

SUNDAY, AUGUST 24
· Sunday night at the Radiohead show. Saw SANDRA OH with several dudes scrambling to get to their seats. She looked flustered, yet excited. Also saw SETH GREEN in line between songs waiting for beers. He was sporting a trucker hat and has a big, shaggy red beard. He looks like he belongs under a bridge waiting for three billy goats gruff.

Lastly, also saw BALTHAZAR GETTY near the beer line between songs, wearing douchey skinny jeans and chomping on cigarettes. Dude looked like he was having way too much fun, like he'd just ditched his wife and kids for a hot chick who likes to bang while only wearing a sailor's hat. Oh, wait...

· As I approached the cool 'n' groovy Santa Monica/Fairfax Whole Foods, I saw two paps outside aiming their lenses into the store. Store security blocked their view. I heard someone say, "She's the one in orange," and then noticed LAUREN CONRAD in a cute orange summer dress, casual hair, grinding her own peanut butter near the bulk grains. No, she did not have an assistant to pour in the peanuts and press the button for her. When I left she was checking out, the paps were lining up, and the Whole Foods security guys, looking vaguely energized, were preparing to escort Ms. Conrad to her vehicle.

MONDAY, AUGUST 25
· Monday night, Radiohead at the Bowl. After briefly encountering JARED LETO (dressed a bit like Shia in Indiana Jones) on the concourse leading a small scuzzy posse around and claiming that he had extra seats, I was surprised to see him all alone in the pool circle up front where I was seated (second row, yo!). Jared apparently ditched his "boys" and tried a bum rush to get up front as the lights went down. Multiple security guards stopped him and he immediately went into "Don't you know who I am?" mode. At first it was high-larious, but then it became a bit pathetic. And then it became a lot pathetic. He just would not give up. It didn't matter. They hauled him away just before the band came out and killed it.

I'd like to believe that Radiohead hates Jared's stupid fucking band and the noise pollution he calls music as much as I and everyone else at the show does, and that they ordered security to remove him from their immediate vicinity, but more than likely Thom Yorke has never heard of 30 (Minutes? Miles? I refuse to google.) to Mars. To Thom, it was probably just another dumb asshole without a ticket getting the boot from the front. Which is exactly what it was.

·Saw JAMES WOODS on 8/25 on Burton Way near Raffles L'Ermitage Beverly Hills. He was on the phone and completely plugged into it. Looks pretty good for a man his age. No sign of his 20 year old girl anywhere.

TUESDAY, AUGUST 26
· Comedy Antichrist DANE COOK was at Crunch. His name was on the marquee at the Laugh Factory across the street, so I'm guessing it was some sort of pre- or post-show routine. If you imagined that he'd work out in a backwards baseball cap and muscle shirt, thereby confirming your image of him as a superannuated, doughy-faced, overgrown frat boy - you'd be correct.

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 27
· Two fun (separate) sightings. Saw Kevin (BRAIN BAUMGARTNER) from Scrantonicity (and, yes, The Office); and, Chuck (ZACHARY LEVI), from, well, Chuck at the Studio City Starbucks. Both taking meetings around the corner at the NBC/Universal building? Kevin wearing shorts, Chuck driving a gas-guzzling Chevy Tahoe. Bad choices, boys.

· Eyed R&B sensation/masturbation fantasy CIARA placing a to-go order at the El Pollo Loco on Sunset and Crescent Heights around 4:40pm. Body was insane.

· I was walking back to my office from Rick's Tavern yesterday around 8:35pm going South on Main St when, lo and behold, JERRY SEINFELD was walking the opposite direction. He was with a group of like 3 or 4 friends and looking casual but good. Hoodie and glasses and admiring the motor bikes parked on the street.

· Saw Seymore Butts (born ADAM GLASSER) in the Miracle Mile Marie Callender's today. No cameras, no nudity, no sex acts being performed. But seriously, I saw Seymore Butts!!!

FRIDAY, AUGUST 29
· Walking through the hallways of a building deep in the heart of Toluca Lake around 3:30pm is FARRAH FAWCETT. Farrah raised her head to look me in the eye with a a look that said "Yes I am Farrah Fawcett and don't talk to me" Farrah had heavy duty perfume situation going on that wafted in the hallway well after she left the building. Christie Brinkley is about the same age as her but Farrah looks like she has been through the ringer and had a rough, rough hard drinking, hard partying, heavy tanning life. Use sunscreen, kids. Use Sunscreen.

· Not sure if KEVIN FEDERLINE is a real "sighting" but we saw Father of The Year at Malibu Seafood on Friday. Did not look overly douche-y. Was with a few guys, both whom I recognized but neither that I could place.

· We saw JOHN C. REILLY out in Dublin's (as in, Ireland) posh south side last Friday. We couldn't remember his name right off. We called him "Not-Will-Ferrell". He didn't seem to mind.

[Photo Credit: X17]

"First of all, the man is not my father and we're not on a plantation either," he told ABCNEWS.com. "He's a great director. He makes his films, I make my films. The thing about it though, I didn't personally attack him. And a comment like 'a guy like that should shut his face' — come on Clint, come on. He sounds like an angry old man right there."

"If he wishes, I could assemble African-American men who fought at Iwo Jima and I'd like him to tell these guys that what they did was insignificant and they did not exist," he said. "I'm not making this up. I know history. I'm a student of history. And I know the history of Hollywood and its omission of the one million African-American men and women who contributed to World War II."

We're pretty sure this means that two-part primary dramatization idea of ours is dead in the water. Whatever — Bruce Vilanch will get a hold of this before we know it, and they'll be co-presenting an Oscar together by February.

• Spike Strikes Back: Clint's 'an Angry Old Man' [ABC News]

Eastwood has no time for Lee's gripes. "He was complaining when I did Bird [the 1988 biopic of Charlie Parker]. Why would a white guy be doing that? I was the only guy who made it, that's why."

"He could have gone ahead and made it. Instead he was making something else." As for Flags of Our Fathers, he says, yes, there was a small detachment of black troops on Iwo Jima as a part of a munitions company, "but they didn't raise the flag. The story is Flags of Our Fathers, the famous flag-raising picture, and they didn't do that. If I go ahead and put an African-American actor in there, people'd go, 'This guy's lost his mind.' I mean, it's not accurate."

Lee shouldn't be demanding African-Americans in Eastwood's next picture, either. Changeling is set in Los Angeles during the Depression, before the city's make-up was changed by the large black influx. "What are you going to do, you gonna tell a fuckin' story about that?" he growls. "Make it look like a commercial for an equal opportunity player? I'm not in that game. I'm playing it the way I read it historically, and that's the way it is. When I do a picture and it's 90% black, like Bird, I use 90% black people."

Eastwood pauses, deliberately - once it would have provided him with the beat in which to spit out his cheroot before flinging back his poncho - and offers a last word of advice to the most influential black director in American movies. "A guy like him should shut his face." [...]

Eastwood's next project, The Human Factor, is about Nelson Mandela and how he used the country's victory in the 1995 Rugby World Cup as a means of fostering national unity. Will he be sticking with the historical record on that one? He laughs. "Yeah, I'm not going to make Nelson Mandela a white guy."

As amusing as it is to observe Eastwood and Lee embracing the feud fever currently gripping their profession, we'd ultimately rather see these two talented filmmakers reaching across the grumpy-director divide, especially during these hopeful, history-making times. Perhaps the two can settle their differences by collaborating on a two-part political docudrama anthology about the 2008 DNC primary, with Lee's Obama, starring Sean Penn as the junior senator from Illinois, set to release simultaneously with Eastwood's own Hillary, starring S. Epatha Merkerson.

• Dirty Harry comes clean [film.guardian.co.uk]

"Clint Eastwood made two films about Iwo Jima that ran for more than four hours total and there was not one Negro actor on the screen," Lee told reporters. "If you reporters had any balls you'd ask him why. There's no way I know why he did that — that was his vision, not mine. But I know it was pointed out to him and that he could have changed it. It's not like he didn't know."

Incidentally, when Eastwood was asked about Lee's comments during Tuesday's Exchangeling press conference, the Cannes moderator reportedly rebuffed the inquiry. But! We digress! Lee also squeezed in a Coen brothers smackdown ("Look, I love the Coen brothers; we all studied at NYU. But they treat life like a joke. Ha ha ha. A joke. It's like, 'Look how they killed that guy! Look how blood squirts out the side of his head!' I see things different than that.") and announced a new documentary about Michael Jordan he's planning to unveil at next year's festival.

Elsewhere, we finally found someone who doesn't like Eastwood's latest, and the Croisette cascades with hype as Steven Soderbergh's two-part, four-and-a-half-hour Che prepares to unspool in its entirety. "From a press and industry perspective, people are definitely talking about the film," writes Karina Longworth, "but everyone seems less interested in what's going to be on screen tonight than in how it'll eventually be seen." All together? Kill Bill-style? Straight-to-video serialization? Buy one, get one free?

Also among the debris:

—Hide the kids! Oscar-fetish grunt and Blurb Whore Hall of Famer Pete Hammond has been hyperventilating over Vicky Cristina Barcelona and co-star Penelope Cruz in particular, and it's all unflinchingly caught on video.

—Sadistic Variety blogger Mike Jones also videotapes a succession of fest attendees mispronouncing the title of Charlie Kaufman's Synecdoche, New York. (Don't be fooled — that's a hard "K" at the end of "York.")

—The brilliant if frustrating Argentinian director Lucretia Martel showed off her new film La Mujer sin Cabeza (The Woman Without a Head) on Tuesday; she was rewarded promptly with mystified reviews and the helm of a big-budget film about "alien invaders and their army of giant insects." Like Indiana Jones 4, kind of, but with even less story.

[Photo Credit: Getty Images]

The intercutting of two heavyweight proceedings, a murder trial and a landmark City Hall hearing, provide the story's dramatic crescendo, although even greater tension stems from what comes thereafter. In the end, Changeling joins the likes of Chinatown and L.A. Confidential as a sorrowful critique of the city's political culture.

A dozen filmmakers could have taken a dozen different approaches to the same material — sensationalistic, melodramatic, expose-minded, a kid's or killer's p.o.v., and so on. Perhaps the best way to describe Eastwood's approach is that he's extremely attentive — to the central elements of the story, to be sure (with its echoes of A Perfect World), but also to the fluidity between the private and the public, the arbitrariness of life and death, the distinct ways different people view the same thing, the destructive behavior of some adults toward children and the quality of life in California around the time he was born.

McCarthy has robust praise for Jolie as well, comparing her performance as a mother looking for her son to that of A Mighty Heart, except The Exchange "hits home more directly due to the lack of affectation — no accent, frizzed hair or darkened complexion, and no attempt to consciously rein in emotion." Meanwhile, a "British journalist" at the festival apparently told Jeffrey Wells "there's not a weak point in the entire film" and that Eastwood should be on the short list for the fest's Best Director prize. (With Mystic River Oscar-winner Sean Penn heading the jury, we'd say it's a near-lock.)

Anyway, the film opens Stateside in November but is likely to screen in the Toronto and New York film festivals en route to hogging four months of typically profuse Eastwoodian accolades and Oscar hype. Mix in another Space Cowboys, Clint — remind us you're human. Or, better yet, someone send a heads-up about the backlash. It's coming.

[Photo: Getty Images]

• Changeling [Variety]

• 'Exchange' Praise [Hollywood Elsewhere]

Paramount, producer George Lucas and director Steven Spielberg have made some changes in their game plan to avoid the Da Vinci scenario. For one thing, they're not having a big party. ...

In contrast, Indy's producers have skedded a "filmmakers party" for 250 people — no press invited. There will be the usual press conference following the screening; the only TV and print junket interviews with the cast are scheduled the day before the screening, instead of afterward; access to Spielberg outside the press conference is strictly interdit.

We didn't want to go to your stupid party anyway; we're too busy joining Pete Hammond in handicapping the Oscar chances of this year's higher-profile fest selections. Actually, we're doing no such thing, and we wish Hammond wouldn't either, but there it is: Jury chair Penn might help shepherd his ex-director Clint Eastwood's Changeling to the Palme d'Or! Che is a front-runner, except it's not finished! Kung Fu Panda is an animated film contender! Only 10 more days of this; thanks for nothing, LA Times.

Elsewhere, Anne Thompson is making the rounds in smoke-filled rooms, and Jeffrey Wells was on the scene at a panel during which David Poland — via Skype! — apparently predicted the end of The Hollywood Reporter within three years. So, you know, don't renew your subscription.

Che joins the Eastwood/Jolie mystery Changeling and Kaufman's mindfuck directorial debut Synecdoche, New York in one of the lighter American competition crops in years. The Weinsteins wrangled a non-competition spot for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, the putatively sexy ScarJo/P-Cruz/J-Bar menage a Woody that's also been on and off the program for the last few weeks. James Toback's documentary about Mike Tyson — imaginatively entitled Tyson — landed in the Un Certain Regard sidebar alongside compatriots Kelly Reichardt (Wendy and Lucy) and Antonio Campos (Afterschool). We're disappointed to see the Coen brothers and Focus Features were serious about skipping the fest with Burn After Reading, but still, our open request stands: Smuggle us over in your suitcase if you have room.

• Cannes unveils lineup [Variety]

· Battlestar Galactica fans: sad face. The hit Sci Fi Channel series won't be getting a motion picture treatment. [THR]

In today's episode: Kiefer Sutherland; Clint Eastwood and Zooey Deschanel; Ryan Gosling; Hilary Swank; Orlando Bloom; Shia LaBeouf; Jason Schwartzman; Laurence Fishburne; Adrian Grenier; Sarah Michelle Gellar; Christina Applegate; Wentworth Miller; Justin Chambers; Gavin Rossdale and Gwen Stefani; Bradley Cooper; T.R. Knight; Tom Verica; Danny Bonaduce; John Hensley; and Danny Pintauro.

· Tues. 1/22, at Vermont in Los Feliz. KIEFER. Freshly sprung, and looking none the worse for all of that laundry duty. He was enjoying an early and relatively sedate dinner with a group of mostly male friends. Well-rested, clean-shaven, non-drinking. What is the world coming to?

· At the Whole Foods on Sepulveda in Sherman Oaks. I was checking out at the register and felt the customer behind me breathing down my neck. I turned to tell him to get out of my personal space when I realized that it was Ed Begley Jr. . That's a lame sighting but moments later he turned to say hello to a passing customer and it was no other than Clint F'n Eastwood. Clint looking good though the sweat pants were up a little high.

· I found myself at the Studio City In-N-Out for lunch today. As I'm getting in line, I spot Ryan Gosling sitting to the left eating a double-double. No, it wasn't protein style. I couldn't tell if he was eating fries, so I couldn't tell you if he's counting carbs. He was scruffy, wearing the non-working actor uniform of a flannel over a wife beater. His lunch date was a normal looking girl- I mean that as a compliment- she wasn't a Hollywood skank or looking like Ryan's fellow ex-Mickey Mouse Clubber Britney. He did most of the talking. An old man wished him luck on an Oscar win. I heard a few girls- they weren't really sure if it was him or not. He wasn't recognizable to most people in the joint. As I ate my double-double, I thought to myself- Brad Renfro and Ryan Gosling- 2 former kid actors , 1 dead, 1 a great actor. Ryan and the lady drove off in her red Chevy Cobalt sedan with Massachusetts plates. LA is great- A double-double is a double-double whether I'm eating it or Ryan Gosling's eating the same hamburger- doesn't matter if you're a movie star or a schlub like me- a double-double is still a double-double. (apologies to Warhol)

· While waiting in the Seattle airport for a return flight to LA last night (1/24), I noticed a pair of super cool boots in the crowd. When I looked up, I realized that they were attached to Hilary Swank. She is much more petite than I had expected and looked great without makeup or fancy clothes.

· Orlando Bloom at the 101 Coffee Shop this morning around 11 am with a few people. He was sitting at a booth facing the crowd - I love when celebs love being seen. No hiding here! Some chicks were chatting him up from the counter.

· 1/23 - On Wednesday morning, Shia LaBeouf stopped into Aroma in Studio City for a coffee. He looked freshly showered with his curly hair slicked back, and he was wearing a plaid shirt, jeans and sneakers in a retro way without looking like he's trying too hard. Nice.

· Sunday 1-20 at the Fairfax Whole Foods:

Almost collided into Zooey Deschanel in the cosmetics aisle. Very cute despite the Frumpy Boho look.

Then while perusing the soups in the deli section, a small group of small hipsters hailing each other. One of them was Jason Schwartzman looking like a hirsute elf. At the check out, my cashier asked his bagger if that was he, I nodded yes, then (the cashier) proceeded to tell everyone around him that it was Jason. The checker must have just moved to L.A., to be so starstruck. But then when I first moved to L.A., I was pretty excited over Loni Anderson.

· Met my best pal for breakfast today (Thursday, 1/24) at the S&W Country Diner in Culver City when who walks in and perches himself in the cramped corner of the counter by Laurence "Don't call me Larry" Fishburne. He wore a cloth golf jacket that would've looked good on a 74-year-old duffer at Hillcrest Country Club. Spent the whole time chatting on his cell, via a bluetooth. Dude looks completely ordinary in person.

· At the Coffee Table in Silver Lake today (1/15) and saw a scruffy, familiar face. Thought I knew him from some 12-step meetings or somewhere, but then realized it was Adrian Grenier from "Entourage". He was with a pretty blonde girl with indie-rock bangs who at one point was definitely crying. Thought he might be breaking her heart, but later she was smiling, so my friend and I figured it was more like her bird died or something. Oh, and last thing: I nominate Adrian for the new Kiefer. Not for debauchery, but for his Eastside ubiquitousness.

· January 15th at Hollywood hot spot Crimson. Sarah Michelle Gellar all decked out in a beautiful blue dress hanging out in the outside patio enjoying a cigarette with some other beautiful people in her party. Looked like they were celebrating something.

· Thursday, January 24, 4:40-ish

Christina Applegate looking very sad at the 7-11 on the corner of Holloway and La Cienega. Maybe it's because I got the last 1/4 pound Big Bite.

· 1/18/08- Perusing the aisles of dusty overpriced tchochkes in Pasadena's Camden Antiques, I looked up to see Prison Break's Wentworth Miller wandering about. Gay? Straight? Who cares. They guy is smokin' and the only desirable object I wanted to take home.

· saw the ridiculously hot JUSTIN CHAMBERS aka DR. KAREV on GREY'S ANATOMY, yesterday 1/21, on Little Santa Monica. he was walking by Sprinkles Cupcakes, wearing dark brown leather pants (in broad daylight? really?) and movie star sunglasses. he was carrying a pink Juicy Couture shopping bag.

if he wasn't so hot, i'd say he looked a little 'McDouche-y'.

· I spotted Gavin Rossdale, Gwen Stefani, and their monkey child at the Hollywood farmer's market this past Sunday. Ridiculously good looking family. Gavin is extremely fuckable in person.

· Bradley Cooper at Hal's at Friday lunch, 1-18-08. JFC. I need lube, now.

· t.r. knight (flocked by 4 very attractive men) at the 4:10 arclight showing of 27 dresses on saturday, 1/19. how cute, supporting the friend. but the movie wasn't that good to see it 2x so does that mean he wasn't invited to the premiere? scandalous.

· Jan 21 - Southwest Flight this morning to Salt Lake City saw Tom Verica. Had glasses (for reading, not for the sun), baseball cap and an iPhone. My kind of man.

· Monday, Jan 14th, Rock n' Roll Ralphs. Danny Bonaduce walked in front of my car, trying desperately to get away from a really pissed off dark-haired lass. I wish I could have stayed for the obviously brewing fight, but the line of cars behind me would not allow it. I haven't seen him since the late eighties, outside a valley bar where he—dressed in full leathers— solemnly mounted a moped and scootered off into the night. Classy.

· just saw matt (John Hensley) getting off a virgin america flight at lax (1/17) while i wait to board the same plane. he's way less tranny looking in person

· Weekend of fun gays — Danny Pintauro (Jonathan from Who's The Boss!!) at Friday night showing of 27 Dresses at Century City. Tiny, plaid shirt, screamed a lot. Also of note, someone totally puked at the Cloverfield showing that afternoon at The Grove. Yay?